Metodologia para cálculo de um índice de segurança energética em sistemas elétricos com fontes renováveis e armazenamento de energia

Abstract

The increasing complexity of electrical systems, coupled with the growing integration of intermittent renewable sources, poses new challenges to energy security assessment. This work proposes an Energy Security Index that integrates probabilistic and structural indicators widely consolidated in the literature, including Loss of Load Probability and Expected Energy Not Supplied, among others. This index should allow for the simultaneous evaluation of reliability and matrix concentration aspects. In addition, the index aims to capture the effect of technological diversification on the security of electrical systems.The methodology used is based on Stationary Monte Carlo Simulation for estimating probabilistic reliability metrics, and the Shannon entropy method was used for the objective definition of the weights of the variables that make up the index. The model is applied to the IEEE 14-bus system, used as a reference system, under different scenarios of electrical matrix composition. The analyses consider variations in photovoltaic generation penetration, inclusion of wind generation, presence of BESS, and different loading levels, allowing for the evaluation of the system’s sensitivity to different operational and structural conditions.The results demonstrate that the combination of dispatchable, renewable, and storage sources presented the highest index values; therefore, maximizing energy security depends not only on increasing the share of renewables but also on the balance between technological diversity, capacity adequacy, and operational flexibility.