Impactos da elevação do nível do mar em função das mudanças climáticas em manguezais no Parque Nacional de Sundarbans, Índia

Abstract

This dissertation aimed to analyze the impacts of sea level rise driven by climate change on the mangrove forests of Sundarbans National Park, India, considering projections for the period from 2022 to 2100. Recognized as one of the largest continuous mangrove ecosystems in the world, the region has high ecological importance and is highly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. The research was conducted through a bibliographic and documentary review, combined with the application of the BR-Mangue model to assess the environmental vulnerability of the study area and the statistical analysis of the simulated data. The simulation results indicated an approximate 45.25% reduction in the remaining mangrove area by 2100, accompanied by the expansion of flooded areas and the restriction of ecological migration, highlighting the high vulnerability of the ecosystem under the projected scenarios. The analyses also identified response patterns of the ecosystem to the simulated scenarios, indicating an increased susceptibility to environmental degradation and the loss of ecological functions, reinforcing the need for monitoring, conservation, and climate adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study contributes to expanding scientific knowledge on the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems and supports the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).